In the heat of this political season, unemployment and the US economy are major issues. Presidental candidates each have a position and blame one thing or another (immigration, the ultra rich) in the hopes of convincing voters they have the keys to “make America great again”. What if the vision either side offers is wrong and each candidate is responding to the concerns of their base in a way that ignores reality? What if the jobs of yesterday are not coming back?
I read a commentary on the recent “recovery” that explains things in a way that make sense to me (wish I had the reference). Many employers had to lay off employees in the aftermath of the down turn of 2008. As the economy has recovered (check the level of the stock market), these employers have realized that they can generate a larger profit margin by not employing at the level pre-2008. Technology has contributed to this situation, but for whatever reason employers have realized they do not need the number of people they thought they did. This makes sense to me and it may be the reality of the future.
What if this is the new reality and politicians are just unwilling to tell us this unpopular truth?
I don’t buy the isolationist argument. The various economies of the world are now interrelated and the US probably makes out far better than most. We are too hopelessly hooked on cheap goods sold in big box stores to get into trade wars with other nations. My challenge for Trump supporters who think otherwise is to wean themselves from shopping at Walmart or Target and to find an alternative to their iPhone that is made in the US. There is a difference between dealing interactively with the economies of other countries in a fair way and accepting the way economies interact.
My reality check does not come with easy solutions. My thinking has been influenced by Tom Friedman because he seems to accept the reality of globalization. He promotes education and the exploration of new types of work.
I do think that redistribution of wealth is necessary. The US is doing far better than most may realize because the disparity in who gets what continues to increase. Trickle down has never worked so I am with the Democrats on supporting different approaches to taxation.
I also think we need to consider the retirement age. As an academic, I used to think the old guy who tottered around campus and refused to retire was kind of interesting. As I functioned as an administrator and then retired myself, I changed my opinion. The old guy was taking a job away from someone else. Retirement does not have to mean that you no longer contribute or are intellectually inactive. Holding one of a limited number of jobs at some point is kind of selfish. The professions at least need to take a look and see if there are ways to redefine retirement to offer both new employment opportunities and ways for those “retired” to continue to contribute.