The Curmudgeon Speaks

I understand that the COVID illness striking so many of the White House inner circle is a terrible thing and I would not wish this infection on anyone. However, the stubborn, purposeful ignorance of Republicans and the Republican leadership must be held partially responsible. Cornell has completed an analysis of 1.1 million news articles reporting conspiracy theories and false information associated with the pandemic and found that President Trump is the number one ultimate source for false information. Now, we have the infection of the President and multiple individuals from his inner circle. This is not just bad luck or related to the demands of the work that must be done. This article from the Minneapolis Star Tribute describes the problem as pandemic recklessness. The immediate and extended dangers associated with the attitudes and motivation (whatever that might be) should not be underestimated. The problems experienced in the U.S. are statistically unique and simply should not be possible given our wealth and medical expertise.

How did this become a politically partisan issue? Why do we have a leader who mocks his election opponent because of mask wearing and hiding in his basement rather than being out encouraging thousands of unmasked fans? Why do we have Governors (I am most familiar with Minnesota and Wisconsin) being sued by political rivals because the Democratic Governors have mandated mask policies and limited opportunities for large public gatherings? Why does it seem that the Democrats are siding with the public health experts and the scientists and the Republicans reject the advice that has been given?

I understand that Democrats tend to encourage government policies that often include restrictions related to dangers to the public and the environment and Republicans encourage greater personal freedoms. However, it is obvious that personal freedom and frankly personal ignorance must be considered major problems here. The mask thing is not only about personal protection in the way seat belts or hands-free driving are about personal protection. The mask is not only about protecting the individual from risky behavior that might result in an injury (a disease in this case). With encouraging or requiring cloth masks and limiting large gatherings, this is more about protecting others. It comes down to whether you believe individuals have the right to be selfish and act in ways that endanger others – me before we.

Maybe reality will finally set in with the President and those in the inner circle becoming ill, but I am not confident. Somehow logic and facts don’t seem to matter when behavior becomes politicized.

Understanding our current economic situation is critical to a personal evaluation of the effectiveness of the present administration in the run up to the election. Expressions such as a V- or K-shaped recovery may not provide clarity. For those of us with jobs we can do safely online or somewhat isolated from co-workers and for those of us with income from the stock market, an appreciation of the economic perils of our situation or increasing inequities may be difficult to appreciate.

I thought this article from the Washington Post did a great job of explaining several of these issues. It is a comparison of multiple recessions and an explanation of why this one is different. One graphic (I provide) as you may not have access to the article.

The four graphs compare job loss/gains for four recessions for the top and bottom 25% of income. The difference across recessions is dramatic and a function of our present challenge being caused by a deadly illness and the differential dangers of working in person versus distanced in some way and whether this difference is required to earn an income. When Biden describes a K-shaped recession, this difference is what he is describing. Those most negatively impacted are far more unlikely to have investments in the stock market explaining why pointing to the stock market as an indicator of the health of the economy is misleading.

If you heard the first Presidential debate, I assume you came to the conclusion that it was a mess and you learned very little about the issues. At least, this was my conclusion. Too many blame both candidates for this situation. I disagree and this position reminds of the “there are very good people on both sides” argument. In a contentious situation with an audience invested in one candidate or the other, it would be unreasonable to expect Biden to abide by the rules and not engage with Trump. Trump continually makes the argument that Biden is weak and offers this message to his followers. Should Biden have been passive in reaction to Trump’s continual intrusions into Biden’s speaking time the analysis would have been that he was too passive and unable to stand up to a bully. Trump clearly could not handle several of the questions and had a strategy of trying to bully Biden and be seen as the more powerful candidate. Biden did enough to defend himself and did his best to actually argue his positions. The only useful and separate comments came at the end when they were asked whether they would accept the results of the election.

Perhaps the second “town hall” debate will be more civil. If not, I see no advantage to Biden in continuing. He is already leading and to continue to engage in creating more noise is not the most effective way to argue his case.

When people understand you read a lot, you end up with many recommendations. These recommendations sometimes are generated by what I write about. With the exception of technology which I have been deeply involved with since the mid-1980s, my opinions on many matters are shaped by what I read.

I am interested in economics and how it relates to the stock market because of my interest in the growing economic inequality in this country. While I read content from many sources, I am probably most influenced by long reads. So, given some don’t understand my opinion about the general U.S. economy and the stock market even when I try to explain my understanding of several important issues, here are the books that have influenced me.

Boushey, DeLong & Steinbaum – After Piketty – https://www.amazon.com/After-Piketty-Agenda-Economics-Inequality/dp/0674504771

Heinberg – The end of growth – https://www.amazon.com/End-Growth-Adapting-Economic-Reality/dp/0865716951/

Krugman – Arguing with zombies – https://www.amazon.com/Arguing-Zombies-Economics-Politics-Better/dp/1324005017

Krugman – Conscience of a liberal – https://www.amazon.com/Conscience-Liberal-Paul-Krugman/dp/0393333132/

Lewis – The big short – https://www.amazon.com/Big-Short-Inside-Doomsday-Machine/dp/0393338827

Lewis – Flash boys – https://www.amazon.com/Flash-Boys-Wall-Street-Revolt-ebook/dp/B00HVJB4VM/

Piketty – Capital – https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Twenty-First-Century-Thomas-Piketty-ebook/dp/B074DVRW88/

Reich – Saving capitalism: For the many not the few – https://www.amazon.com/Saving-Capitalism-Many-Not-Few/dp/0345806220/

Reich – The system: Who rigged it, how to fix it – https://www.amazon.com/System-Who-Rigged-How-Fix/dp/0525659048

Global economics – multiple books from Thomas Friedman

I have had the opportunity to spend time photographing the fall colors in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin for many years. This Fall seems to be exceptional. I have created a gallery of photos (see page link at the top of this page) I can update as I collect more images. We are at peak now but this should last for a few more days.

The combination of crises that now face this country is far beyond prediction. For those looking for a positive perspective here is my thought. The present challenges have laid bare the ugly inequities so many have found ways to ignore. Now, when the ugliness stares us in the face there is an opportunity to focus on principles and values. Speak up and vote for fair opportunities and recognition for all.

Martin Luther King is often quoted in suggesting “the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice”. I am arguing the potential for the same thing though my words are less eloquent. Think of our present circumstances as a wobble toward a focus on the self and authoritarianism. Time for the moral compass to right itself with our help.

We have traveled a lot since we retirement, but the pandemic has limited what we can do. We have missed two trips to Europe to this point. We finally decided to take our camper on the road visiting a couple of state parks in Wisconsin. It is amazing how popular camping has become. As long as you have the equipment and function without using facilities, it seems pretty safe. The problem has been finding a camp site that has not been reserved.

I do maintain a blog site specific to our trips – https://grabetravels.blogspot.com

Some see colleges as sowing the seeds of liberalism in young and impressionable minds. Some of my relatives think so. I am not even certain what this is supposed to mean. Does it mean as a prof you talk politics in your class taking the opportunity of having a captive audience? Perhaps the mission of different disciplines in the social sciences and humanities focus on content and values that happen to be liberal? There is some evidence that this is the case, but there is also evidence business and engineering profs are less so. We do know that the level of education is related to the probability of voting Democrat or Republican. However, are these relationships cause or effect? Does the discipline shape values or do folks with different values commit to different disciplines?

I encountered a longitudinal study following approximately 3500 college students and trying to determine how their values changed. Students were asked about their attitudes toward liberal and conservative people.

In 2015, 42% of students had “high” positive attitudes toward political conservatives. That share increased substantially to 50% in 2016. Three years later, in 2019, it returned to 42%. Meanwhile, positive attitudes toward politically liberal people generally increased during college. All told, 58% of students reported “high” positive attitudes toward this group in 2015. That number grew to 66% in 2016 and then hit 70% in 2019.

I attempted to dig a little deeper into the methodology and the exact questions that were asked. I found that the items were part of a larger study examining how attitudes toward people of different religions changed across the college years. The original study describes the results as follows:

Overall, positive feelings toward politically liberal people increased during college among students in the study. By contrast, positive feelings toward politically conservative people leveled off or declined after the first college year, varying slightly by worldview group. Notably, some of the groups with the greatest appreciation for conservatives at the end of their first year showed the sharpest declines thereafter, including Hindus and Latter-day Saints.

We were watching CBS Sunday morning and one of the segments on the news show concerned income inequality and the pandemic. A good part of the segment described the differential impact of the pandemic on the economy of the wealthy versus other participants in the ecnomy based on the work of Thomas Piketty. My thinking on economic inequality has been strongly influenced by my reading of Piketty’s book Capital. The segment mentioned the release on Amazon of a documentary based on this book – Capital in the 21st century. I rented and watched this documentary this afternoon.

The book and documentary are part history, part economics, and part political analysis. Both are a remedy to simplistic notions such as the American Dream and any positive assumptions folks of advantage have regarding the superiority of unchecked capitalism. Claims such as Reagan’s trickle down economics simply ignore the data. For those who point to the high stock market shortly before and during the pandemic, the documentary explains just how few actually benefit and how unemployment and income inequality can be increasing even as the stock market rises. I now refer to the documentary because plowing through the book is a struggle even though the focus is on explaining more complicated economic constructs (e.g., capital) for those who do not study such theings.

The documentary in part addresses an issue I write about and understand at a deeper level – technology in society. Technology is in some way a boon to recent economic trends creating new wealth and new opportunities. The video considers the notion that new technologies are job creators rather than job eliminators. While often true, the key issue is whether there are meaningful options to which individuals replaced by technology can move. The creators of the documentary note that this may not be the case with digital technology. One factoid they note is that within the next decade the first or second occupation in nearly every state is likely to be replaced by technology. This occupation is professional driver of one sort or another. This is not like moving from horse power to steam power to gas and electricity. Technology is replacing occupations of every type and there comes a point at which there is simply not meaningful work for those displaced.

When factors such as the pandemic impact an economy you immediately see the value of capital and technology in increasing inequities. Those at the top in multiple vocations have low risk and great economic opportunities. Consider the benefits to Amazon and any media or communication industry under present circumstances. Those at the bottom face danger in providing necessary labor and cannot escape the danger because of the threat of no income. With so many out of work, their labor has not resulted in higher income because others will be willing to take low pay jobs. People are turning away from small businesses as unnecessary and concentrate their spending on big businesses that benefit from their scale in providing necessary goods and services.

We are in a time when passing on a better life to offspring will be less likely than has been the case for generations. Changes in taxation and business practices allowing tax havens will be necessary to preserve our way of life and limit the unrest that is now growing.

I don’t follow Trump or Biden on Twitter, but it is quite informative to check on their tweets to see how they see the world and their supporters. It is easy enough to do. Just select search and open the search text field. Suggested searches will likely bring up both men. Take a look at the topics both author and share. Consider the vision both portray. Try to grasp the totality of the content. The difference in content is stark – darkness and light.